# Will Russia capture Hryshyne by March 31, 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-02-16 07:02 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>10.0%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>25.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="18730978422362583344635704599452590050275452404041361625425790481762026934944">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All 8 agents converge tightly (20-28%, σ=3%) around ~22-24%. The evidence is remarkably consistent: Russia has a foothold in southern Hryshyne but the target intersection is in the center, ISW shows a multi-day stall with repelled assaults, advance rates have slowed, and Ukrainian defenses are holding. The market has already corrected sharply from 36.5% to 25% over 4 days, pricing in this same information. My estimate of 22% gives only ~3% edge against the 25% market price, well below the 5% threshold for a trade. While I'm fairly confident the true probability is below 25%, the edge is insufficient to justify a position, especially given the YES=0.20 bucket toxicity warning and the inherent uncertainty in military outcomes over 6 weeks.

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