# Liberal majority in Canadian Parliament by June 30?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-10 08:14 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>66.7%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>68.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="71639186972309675898276528548948460833492839687113431703224860884207762343959">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All five informed agents (2,3,4,7,8) converge on 55-65% range with mean ~59.6%. The core math is clear: Liberals at 169, need 172, have two safe by-elections and one coin-flip (Terrebonne). The Erskine-Smith resignation risk is real but partially mitigated by apparent coordination with Liberal leadership. The 12-14 point national polling lead helps in Terrebonne but doesn't make it safe - it was a 1-vote margin in a Bloc stronghold region. Floor crossings provide a backup path but talks have stalled. The market at 68% appears to overweight the probability of everything going right. Agent 8 explicitly noted they would bet NO at 68% market odds. My 60% estimate reflects an 8% edge against the market, justified by the tight math, Terrebonne uncertainty, and Erskine-Smith risk. Three failed agents pulling ensemble down to 56% understates true informed consensus of ~60%.

## Key Evidence

Liberals need to win toss-up Terrebonne (original 1-vote margin) AND retain Erskine-Smith's seat long enough - combined probability of clean path is ~29%, with alternative paths bringing total to ~60%. Market at 68% overprices this.

## Risks

The iPolitics analysis suggesting even winning all 3 by-elections only yields 171 seats (not 172) could be wrong - if standard count gives 172, probability rises. Also, floor-crossing momentum under Carney's 12-14 point polling lead could be stronger than agents estimated.

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