# Mahmoud Abbas out as Palestinian President by December 31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-11 08:12 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>14.8%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>38.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="13269440832484868280614776968721757206201197083584968181484424865987741824417">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All 8 agents agree the primary risk is health/mortality, not political removal. The disagreement is only on magnitude. The strongest agents (1, 4, 5, 8) properly anchor on actuarial data showing ~13-14% mortality over the remaining period, then add small adjustments. Agents 6 and 7 appear to over-weight speculative health concerns without specific evidence of deterioration. The sibling market at 19% for June 30 provides a useful cross-check — implying the market sees roughly equal risk in each half of the year, consistent with constant mortality hazard. My estimate of 25% accounts for actuarial baseline (~15-16% adjusted for health history), plus ~2% political risk, plus ~7% for health opacity/unknown unknowns. The market at 38.5% appears to overprice by ~13 points, providing sufficient edge for a TRADE_NO recommendation, though confidence is moderate given the genuine health uncertainty for a 90-year-old.

## Key Evidence

Actuarial mortality for 90-year-old male over 9.5 months is ~13-14%, and political removal probability is near-zero given Abbas controls security apparatus and no mechanism exists to force him out. He remains actively governing as of March 9, 2026.

## Risks

Abbas's true health status may be significantly worse than publicly reported; PA health communications are opaque and potentially unreliable. A sudden stroke or cardiac event could resolve this YES with no warning.

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