# US congress stock trading ban before 2027?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-14 13:31 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>6.4%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>18.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="48331720943022474016131345309706210423013499459927685238841317412960679913885">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All 8 agents converge on a low probability (10-17%), with strong consensus on the key dynamics. The evidence is remarkably consistent across agents:

**Consensus findings (high reliability):**
1. H.R. 7008 passed House committee Jan 14, placed on Union Calendar Feb 3, but NO floor vote scheduled as of mid-March 2026
2. Trump endorsed at SOTU but action 'remains stuck'
3. Deep partisan divide - Democrats oppose the weak GOP bill, Republicans won't support stronger versions
4. Senate has NO committee action on any stock trading ban bill
5. Historical base rate is 0% for outright trading bans
6. Collective action problem - members voting against own financial interests

**Why I'm pulling below ensemble mean (14.1%) to 13%:**
- The strongest evidence agents (Agents 2, 4, 6 with detailed bill tracking) cluster at 10-12%, while higher estimates (16-17%) come from agents weighing public support and Trump endorsement more heavily
- The bill being 'stuck' for 6+ weeks after SOTU endorsement is a very strong negative signal - if Trump's push couldn't unstick it, what will?
- The path requires: House floor vote → House passage → Senate committee action → Senate floor vote → conference/reconciliation → presidential signature, all within ~9.5 months
- Resolution criteria ambiguity: the leading bill may not even qualify as 'banning' stock trading given its loopholes

**Anti-confirmation cascade check:** For the market (18%) to be right vs my 13%, I'd need to believe there's meaningful probability of a sudden breakthrough. The specific evidence against this is strong: stalled bill, no Senate action, partisan impasse. However, the 5% edge is marginal.

**Why SKIP:** The edge (market 18% vs my 13% = 5% edge) is right at the threshold but the YES=15-25% bucket is historically unprofitable. Trading NO at 82% offers only ~5% upside with resolution risk (what counts as a 'ban'?). The edge is not large enough to overcome transaction costs and resolution ambiguity.

## Key Evidence

H.R. 7008 has been stalled on House Union Calendar since Feb 3, 2026 with no floor vote scheduled despite Trump's SOTU endorsement. Historical base rate of 0% for outright congressional stock trading bans, and the bill faces deep partisan opposition (Democrats call it 'a scam') plus requires Senate passage where no bill has even had committee action.

## Risks

A sudden political catalyst (scandal, midterm pressure) could force rapid action, and the bill has advanced further than any prior attempt. Also, resolution criteria ambiguity - the weak GOP bill with loopholes might not qualify as 'banning' stock trading.

---

[View on Polymarket](https://polymarket.com/event/665729)