# Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-15 08:21 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>98.7%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>100.0%</td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

6 of 8 informed agents agree the market has already resolved YES. Agent 1 had a research failure (0 searches) and should be discarded. Agent 7 acknowledged their estimate would be much higher if the market already resolved, which it has. The ensemble mean of 80.25% is dragged down by these two outlier agents and is not representative. The true consensus among informed agents is 97-99%. However, with the market at 100% and my estimate at 98%, there is no actionable edge - buying YES at 100% has zero upside and only downside risk, while selling NO has negligible expected value. SKIP is the correct recommendation despite high confidence in the YES outcome.

## Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle ~January 29, 2026, has been at 100% for 6+ weeks with no active dispute process found. Tesla launched robotaxi rides in Austin January 22, 2026 without in-car safety monitor.

## Risks

Theoretical possibility of UMA oracle dispute reversal, though no evidence any such process is active or likely

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