# Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-16 08:24 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>98.7%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>100.0%</td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

7 of 8 agents agree at 97-99% that this market has already resolved YES. Agent 8 (2%) appears to be evaluating whether Tesla truly launched unsupervised FSD rather than whether the market resolves YES — a category error. The market resolved via UMA oracle on Jan 29, 2026 based on Tesla's Jan 22 Austin robotaxi announcement. Despite legitimate controversy (chase cars, remote operators, Level 2 ADAS filings, tiny fleet), the oracle decision appears final. No evidence of active dispute. However, with the market at 100% and my estimate at 98%, there is no actionable edge — buying YES at 100% offers zero upside, and the ~2% chance of reversal doesn't justify shorting. SKIP is the correct call.

## Key Evidence

Market already resolved YES via UMA oracle on January 29, 2026; price locked at 100% for 6+ weeks with no active dispute process

## Risks

Unprecedented UMA oracle reversal, though no evidence suggests this is occurring

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