# Will Trump launch a coin by December 31?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-18 08:21 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>9.4%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>18.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="105361921751656170697022536149181517023199220861265251623491067290247511844313">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All 8 agents agree on the core facts: existing tokens don't count, DJT token is non-transferable, no new tradable token is announced. The disagreement is purely about weighting Trump's historical pattern vs. current evidence of restraint. The deliberate non-transferability of the DJT token is strong specific evidence that Trump's legal team is steering away from tradable tokens while he's president. Agents 3, 4, and 6 (all at 18%) had the most balanced evidence assessment. Agents 7 and 8 (25-28%) overweight historical pattern without adequately accounting for the changed circumstances (sitting president, 95% crash of prior coin, deliberate non-transferability choice). My estimate matches the market at 18%, yielding zero edge. This falls squarely in the 'YES=0.20 toxic bucket' where historically unprofitable trades cluster. No trade warranted.

## Key Evidence

DJT shareholder token deliberately made non-transferable, suggesting Trump's team is actively avoiding new tradable tokens; no concrete announcements or credible plans for a new tradable coin exist as of March 2026

## Risks

Trump could surprise-launch a token with zero advance warning (as he did with $TRUMP in Jan 2025), and 9+ months remain - internal plans would be invisible to research

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