Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-19 08:20 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 99.2% |
| Market (at prediction) | 100.0% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred: Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026, confirmed by every major international news organization and Iranian state media itself. A successor has already been appointed. The market is correctly priced at 100%. There is zero disagreement among agents on the core facts. The only reason not to assign 100% is the infinitesimal possibility of platform resolution anomalies. However, with the market at 100% and our estimate at 99%, there is no edge to trade - buying YES offers no return, and selling NO against confirmed facts would be irrational. This is a clear SKIP due to absence of any tradeable edge, not due to uncertainty about the outcome.
Key Evidence
Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state media, Reuters, CNN, Al Jazeera, NPR, BBC, and all major international outlets. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026.
Risks
Market is priced at 100% and our estimate is 99% - there is no actionable edge. The 1% residual accounts for extreme tail risks like platform resolution quirks, but these are not tradeable.
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This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.