# Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-21 08:25 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>99.2%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>100.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="16615878769673384167929477377853480343169830037043821933967995321252596015328">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Khamenei was assassinated on February 28, 2026, confirmed by every major international news outlet and Iranian state media itself. A successor has been appointed. This is not a forecast but a confirmation of a past event. The market is correctly priced at 100%. However, despite overwhelming certainty, there is NO tradeable edge: the market is at 100% and my estimate is 99%. You cannot buy YES at 100% and profit. The recommendation is SKIP because |edge| = 0-1%, far below the 5% threshold needed for a trade. This is a fully resolved market with no remaining opportunity.

## Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state TV, BBC, CNN, Reuters, Al Jazeera, NYT, and all major international outlets. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed by Assembly of Experts on March 8-9, 2026.

## Risks

Market is already at 100% - there is zero edge available despite the event being confirmed. Buying YES at 100% offers no profit.

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