Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-22 08:17 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 61.9% |
| Market (at prediction) | 56.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
All substantive agents agree on the directional case for Democrats (historical patterns, low Trump approval, unpopular war) but also agree the 2.5-year time horizon severely limits confidence. The ensemble mean of 56.5% exactly matches the market price, and removing the failed agent and outlier barely changes it (56.2%). Agent 7 explicitly would bet Republican at this price, while Agents 2-6 cluster at 57-58% - barely above market. No agent produced evidence suggesting a significant mispricing. The strongest agents (3, 4, 6) all assigned very low confidence (0.30-0.35) despite finding compelling current evidence, precisely because the time horizon is so long. With no edge over market price and enormous residual uncertainty, this is a clear SKIP.
Key Evidence
Historical two-term fatigue (78% out-party win rate) and Trump's record-low approval (-21 net, -43 among independents) favor Democrats, but 2.5-year horizon and fragmented Democratic field create massive uncertainty
Risks
Iran war resolution timeline - a quick favorable resolution could dramatically shift fundamentals toward Republicans, and we have no way to predict this
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This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.