# Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-25 08:21 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>99.2%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>100.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="16615878769673384167929477377853480343169830037043821933967995321252596015328">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

7 out of 8 agents independently found overwhelming, mutually corroborating evidence that Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in US-Israeli airstrikes. The evidence includes confirmation from Iranian state media itself, all major international news organizations, a declared 40-day mourning period, and the appointment of a successor (Mojtaba Khamenei). Agent 1 (GPT-5.2) returned 50% due to a research failure (0 searches, 0 pages read), making it a clear outlier that should be disregarded entirely. The remaining 7 agents all converge at 99%, and the 1% residual is just epistemic humility about the theoretical impossibility of universal media fabrication. This is a resolved event, not a forecast. The market at 100% is correct. However, since the market is already priced at 100%, there is zero edge available on either side. Buying YES at 100% yields no profit, and selling NO against a confirmed event would be irrational. SKIP is the only rational recommendation despite extremely high confidence in YES resolution.

## Key Evidence

Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes, confirmed by Iranian state media, Reuters, CNN, BBC, Al Jazeera, NPR, and all major international outlets. His son Mojtaba Khamenei has already been appointed as successor.

## Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is no edge to capture despite near-certainty of YES resolution

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