# Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-26 08:36 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>13.1%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>25.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="60393836248617547820049836035429132476830916391044713270914070763515849975538">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

7/8 agents cluster between 20-26%, with strong consensus that Rodríguez is consolidating power effectively in the near term. The strongest evidence (Agents 1-3) shows military loyalty, US cooperation, PSUV institutional control, and no credible threats. However, the 9-month window to December 2026 includes the constitutional deadline, potential US policy shifts, and ongoing internal balancing challenges. Agent 6 at 12% underweights these medium-term risks; Agent 8 at 32% overweights the indictment threat. The ensemble mean of 22.2% vs market price of 25.5% yields only ~2.5% edge - well below the 5% threshold for trading. The YES=20% toxic bucket warning applies here. Evidence is solid but the edge is insufficient to justify a trade.

## Key Evidence

Rodríguez actively consolidating power with military loyalty, US diplomatic recognition and cooperation, but faces constitutional deadline in July/August 2026 and US indictment leverage creating medium-term uncertainty

## Risks

Constitutional 180-day acting period expiring July/August 2026 could force a transition crisis; US policy could shift dramatically with midterms or if compliance stalls

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