# Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-03-26 08:29 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>99.2%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>100.0%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="16615878769673384167929477377853480343169830037043821933967995321252596015328">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

All 8 agents unanimously agree at 99% probability. The event has already occurred - Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in confirmed US-Israeli airstrikes. This is verified by Iranian state media, multiple independent international news organizations, US and Israeli officials, and a successor has already been appointed. The market has been at 100% for at least 7 consecutive days. The evidence is as strong as it gets - the resolution event has already happened. However, the market is priced at 100% and my estimate is 99% (the 1% accounts for the infinitesimal possibility of coordinated misinformation, though this is essentially impossible given source diversity including Iranian state media confirmation). There is zero edge to trade here - buying YES at 100% offers no profit, and selling NO against overwhelming confirmed evidence would be irrational. SKIP is the only rational recommendation despite high confidence in the outcome.

## Key Evidence

Ali Khamenei was killed on February 28, 2026 in joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Tehran, confirmed by all major international news outlets (Reuters, BBC, CNN, Al Jazeera), Iranian state media, and US/Israeli officials. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed March 8, 2026.

## Risks

Market is already at 100% so there is no edge to capture despite near-certainty of YES resolution

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