# AI data center moratorium passed before 2027?

<table class="pythia-summary">
<tr><th>Predicted at</th><td>2026-04-01 07:54 UTC</td></tr>
<tr><th>Prediction</th><td><strong>2.3%</strong></td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (at prediction)</th><td>26.5%</td></tr>
<tr><th>Market (live)</th><td><span class="pythia-live-price" data-token-id="2025390560591088537179226102322757925186229685212995352085496916685074114452">—</span></td></tr>
</table>

## Analysis

7 of 8 agents with completed research converge on 2-12% probability (mean ~5% excluding the failed agent). The evidence is overwhelming and specific: the only federal vehicle (S.4214) was introduced by minority-party progressives with zero cosponsors into a Republican Congress that is actively pushing the opposite direction. The Trump administration released a framework to preempt state AI restrictions just 5 days before the bill was introduced. All 14 state-level moratorium bills have stalled. Tech industry lobbying is massive. Historical base rate for minority-party federal technology moratoriums is essentially 0%. The market at 26.5% appears to be a significant mispricing driven by news attention to the bill introduction. Edge of ~22.5% against YES is well above the 5% threshold, evidence is specific and verifiable, and agent consensus is near-unanimous.

## Key Evidence

Republicans control Congress and actively support data center expansion; Sanders/AOC bill has zero cosponsors, no committee hearing, and multiple credible sources call it 'unlikely to advance'; 0/14 state moratorium bills have passed any chamber

## Risks

Resolution criteria ambiguity regarding state vs federal scope, or a catastrophic grid failure creating emergency political momentum

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