The Oracle

How it works.

The Oracle is not one model guessing. It is a council of frontier models that goes to work on your question — trawling the public record, pulling live market data, consulting proprietary sources — until a single probability survives the weighing. How the council deliberates is the Oracle’s own affair. What makes it worth consulting is the record: every answer published, timestamped, and scored in public, forever.

From question to judgment

1. I · The question is sharpened

   The Oracle first reads your question and, if needed, helps you make it resolvable: one clear event, explicit resolution criteria, and a deadline. Vague questions are refused — an answer that can’t be scored is worthless.

2. II · The council deliberates

   A council of frontier models takes up your question and goes to work: trawling the public record, reading primary sources, pulling live market data, consulting proprietary signals. The voices argue, and are weighed against one another until a single probability remains. The Oracle does not explain its deliberations further — it prefers to be judged by its record.

3. III · The judgment is published

   The answer is published to the public record and its content hash is anchored to the Bitcoin blockchain via OpenTimestamps, so it can never be quietly changed after the fact.

How the track record is scored

Every forecast the Oracle publishes — Polymarket markets, reader questions, and Metaculus AIB submissions — lands in one unified ledger, newest first. When a question resolves, the outcome is recorded next to the original probability. Nothing is ever taken down, and losers are never quietly dropped.

• Accuracy — the share of resolved binary questions where the Oracle was on the right side of 50%.
• Brier score — mean squared error between the stated probability and the outcome. Lower is better; 0.25 is what always guessing 50% scores.
• p-value — the probability that a coin-flipper would match or beat this record by luck.

Why you can trust the timestamps

Each published prediction ships a content.md and a content.md.ots OpenTimestamps proof tracing its SHA-256 hash to a Bitcoin block — cryptographic evidence the text existed before the outcome was known. The proof doesn’t depend on trusting this site, its server, or its operator: anyone can verify it independently against the Bitcoin blockchain. A prediction can’t be edited after the fact without its hash no longer matching the timestamped one. Step-by-step verification instructions are on the track record page.