Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026?
| Predicted at | 2026-03-26 08:36 UTC |
|---|---|
| Prediction | 13.1% |
| Market (at prediction) | 25.5% |
| Market (live) | — |
Analysis
7/8 agents cluster between 20-26%, with strong consensus that Rodríguez is consolidating power effectively in the near term. The strongest evidence (Agents 1-3) shows military loyalty, US cooperation, PSUV institutional control, and no credible threats. However, the 9-month window to December 2026 includes the constitutional deadline, potential US policy shifts, and ongoing internal balancing challenges. Agent 6 at 12% underweights these medium-term risks; Agent 8 at 32% overweights the indictment threat. The ensemble mean of 22.2% vs market price of 25.5% yields only ~2.5% edge - well below the 5% threshold for trading. The YES=20% toxic bucket warning applies here. Evidence is solid but the edge is insufficient to justify a trade.
Key Evidence
Rodríguez actively consolidating power with military loyalty, US diplomatic recognition and cooperation, but faces constitutional deadline in July/August 2026 and US indictment leverage creating medium-term uncertainty
Risks
Constitutional 180-day acting period expiring July/August 2026 could force a transition crisis; US policy could shift dramatically with midterms or if compliance stalls
Timestamped via OpenTimestamps · Block 957898
SHA-256: 3aa8230c8f1cc8d9044c22d28c1e4a4ce685f0c557048945fba9307de85e6ebd
Download content.md · Download .ots proof
Verification needs both files. Download them, confirm the text’s hash with
sha256sum content.md, then check the proof against
it — drag both into opentimestamps.org
or run ots verify content.md.ots locally. The
.ots proof anchors that SHA-256 into a Bitcoin block,
showing this analysis existed before the outcome was known.
This page is for informational and research purposes only. Nothing here constitutes financial advice. Do not make investment decisions based on these predictions.